A complicated forecast is taking shape for Sunday and Monday across North Texas.
Sunday will be a hot day with some areas reaching into the low to mid 90's which, of course, is well above the normal. The reason for the hot temps is a ridge of High Pressure, which has influenced our weather for most of the week, is ready to move off to the East. In it's wake, on the back side of the High Pressure clockwise circulation, will be whats called subsidence. Subsidence is descending motion of air in the atmosphere occurring over a rather area. The key word being "sinking" When air sinks it causes friction which heats the air and leads to hot temperatures. It's something we see all the time in the Summer months.
The reason the High Pressure is moving East is because a fairly strong, and complex, Spring system will be pushing it out of the way. This system has pretty much everything you would normally see this time of the year.
1) A cold front. 2) A Dry Line 3) An Upper Level Disturbance 4) Moisture pouring in from the Gulf Of Mexico.
Take a look at this map as it should look Monday and all these features are evident.
The Cold Front and Dry line should join forces and push across West Texas Monday afternoon. Storms will fire along this boundary but at this point the Weather Computer Models are having a hard time predicting how far East the storms will push. Why? Our departing High and the subsidence behind it will still be over East Texas. So, as for now the best forecast would be for Thunderstorms, some very strong, will form west of DFW and head East Monday afternoon and evening. They could make it as far as DFW but I don't feel comfortable predicting much further east than that. It could change as the data becomes more in-line.
The next round of storms should arrive Early Tuesday and into the afternoon as the Main Upper Level Low moves toward us. Still a bit hard to tell but this should allow for more of North Texas to see rain but how much may depend on how quickly the moisture can return after the first round of storms on Monday.
This is all still developing and I will keep the updates flowing as we get more information.